Signals remain mixed despite steady growth in the second quarter renewed growth in the second quarter 2009 to a decline of 1.3% in the first three months of the year French GDP in the second quarter of 2009 by 0.3% compared to the prior quarter laid to. Reason for the growth was, inter alia, increased exports and a stronger private consumption, which was stimulated by the Government-sponsored new vehicle purchase and employment programs in the public sector. Although the total industry order index was again weak in June, a slight improvement in individual sectors such as in the chemical, pharmaceutical and textile industry was increasing. Even if the State programmes have supported the automotive industry to date solid, an accurate forecast of the medium-term development of the industry remains difficult. The French construction industry has shown something more robust than we predicted three months ago. Despite the still rather gloomy situation for the construction sector, the order volume has nearly stabilised. Submit the present orders 5.3 months (compared to 5.6 months in March 2009). Thanks to more moderate, but still robust private consumption, the retail sector registered an upswing.
According to the opinion of the directors of the main sectors of the French economy, the business climate has improved further easily in July 2009. The business climate index shows an increase to 75 points over 74 points in June, and is consequently all 7 points above the lows reached in March. However, the indicator remains far below its long-term average. Generally the French industry is suffering from continued production overcapacity. Therefore, investment spending be 2009 is expected to decrease by more than 20%. The allocation of corporate and personal loans is declining since autumn 2008. The negative trend has continued after a rise of corporate insolvencies by 21% (15,000 cases) in the first three months of this year. Attesting to the numbers from the altar, that the corporate collapses in the second quarter of 2009 with 14,000 Cases to 15% have increased year on year.
After all, the recent figures show a weakening of the negative developments in some major industries such as construction, retail, agriculture and the food industry. u0085 but the signals for France’s economy remain mixed despite some positive signs the economic forecast for the rest of the year remain uncertain. While in the first quarter of 2009, bottomed has been reached, French GDP will arrive is expected in the third quarter at a low level. Consensus Economics forecasts a decline in the economic performance of 2.9% for the coming year for the full year 2009 a slight recovery with growth of 0.3%. After a massive reduction of inventories in the last nine months, we expect, supported by foreign demand, a rise in domestic orders. The French purchasing managers index reached a peak in July with 48.1 points for over a year back. But with growing unemployment in the coming months expected, which in turn consumption, currently one of the major economic pillars, could affect. Therefore, begun recovery will remain subdued in the remaining months of the year. We assume that the number of corporate insolvencies will remain high in the second half of 2009. With the exception of agriculture and the food – and pharmaceutical industry, all sectors of which will be significantly affected. However, the possibility of a slight decrease in comparison to the previous months. The French EDF indicator to measure the failure probability is decreasing for several months. However, it remains above the long-term level and indicates a high risk of default for listed companies